My Breakdown of the Dual By-Election of 2026
Dublin Central:
Galway West:
Predicted candidate
Social Democrats
Fine Gael
Dublin Central Count 9 :
| Social Democrats | 1 |
Galway West Count 11:
| Fine Gael | 1 |
Results
If an election was held today based on these results many second Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil candidates would struggle to join their election partner but both parties would still sit in the top 5 and would still be required to form a non grand coalition majority government
With voting now over in #Galwaywest and #DublinCentral this is they end effect with adjustments made for the national equivalent for first preference votes
Fine Gael - 20 (-1%)
Sinn Féin - 14% (-5%)
Fianna Fáil - 12% (-10%)
Social Democrats - 9% (+4%)
Independent Ireland - 8% (+4)
Inde+o - 19% (-)
Green - 5% (+2%)
Labour - 5% (-)
PBP - 4% (+1%)
Aontú - 4% (-)
A growing number of people gave votes to
On the Left :
PBP , Green Party , Social Democrats
at the cost of
Sinn Féin
but for a net gain for the left
On the Right
Independent Ireland gained
at the cost of mostly
Fianna Fáil with a small amount from Fine Gael
but it was a net loss for the right
Large amounts of Fianna Fáil's base are leaving for Independent Ireland while (despite polling) Fine Gael appears to be holding things more together
Fine Gael win on the 11th count in #Galwaywest This will be Fine Gael's 2nd seat in #Galwaywest with it reversing the loss of there #DublinCentral seat at 19:20
Labour Eliminated on the 10th count in #Galwaywest
Social Democrats Eliminated on the 9th count in Galwaywest
Fine Gael has gained transfer support in galwaywest as more people chose to transfer to them when the previous candidate is eliminated
Social Democrats are taking away votes from Sinn Féin in galwaywest due to transfers that usually go to Sinn Féin increasingly go to the Social Democrats
Fine Fail Eliminated on the 8th count in Galwaywest at 13:40
Mike Cubbard Eliminated on the 7th count in Galwaywest
Sinn Féin Eliminated on the 6th count in Galwaywest
Thomas Welby Eliminated on the 5th count in Galwaywest
The Social Democrats WIN a further seat in DublinCentral , Adding to there 11 existing seats and making them irelands forth largest party in the Dáil
Sinn Féin Eliminated on the 9th count in DublinCentral
Green party Eliminated on the 8th count in DublinCentral at 23:30
Gerry Hutch Eliminated on the 7th count in DublinCentral at 22:20
Aontú and Sheila Garrity Eliminated on the 4th count in Galwaywest at 21:30
Fine Gael Eliminated on the 6th count in DublinCentral at 20:50
Green party Eliminated on the 3ed count in Galwaywest at 20:30
Malachy Steenson Eliminated on the 5th count in DublinCentral at 19:50
Irish People Party Eliminated on the 2nd count in Galwaywest at 19:30
People Before Profit Eliminated on the 4th count in DublinCentral at 19:00
Labour Eliminated on the 3ed count in DublinCentral at 18:30
Fianna Fáil eliminated on the 2nd count in Dublin Central at 18:10
Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan grew by 3000 votes
Malachy Steenson grew by 700 votes
PBP grew by 200 votes
in Dublin Central byelection
Independent Ireland grew by 4300 votes
Fine Gael's Seán Kyne grew by 4300 votes
Labour grew by 3400 votes
Mike Cubbard grew by 1100 votes
Irish People grew by 400 votes
In Galway west byelection
PBP, Michael Ryan, Néill Bairéad , Patrick Feeney , John O'Leary Eliminated on the 1st count in Galway west
Aontu , Mannix Flynn , Tony Corrigan , Colm Flood , John O'Leary All eliminated on the 1st count in Dublin Central
In Dublin Central the Race was between :
Gerry Hutch ,
Sinn Fein ,
Fine Gael
Soc Dems
In Galway West the Race Is between :
Thomas Welby,
Fine Gael ,
Independent Ireland
Labour
Who had a chance